//Market Update – Steady as she sails

Market Update – Steady as she sails

MARKET SNAPSHOT

For those who read this, there must be some sigh of relief, expected but good to see that the year on year median sale price difference has risen to realistic levels.

8% down year on year is more in line with what we are feeling on the ground and supportive of the levels of the pullback in buyer demand and interest affecting the good old supply and demand rule.

What has also played a part in the shift over the last year is that the number of buyers purchasing in lower price brackets being both investors and first home buyers has dragged that median down a little more than usual.
Average days on market are hovering in the late 30’s to 40’s indicating a slower market (fewer buyers). A fast market often sees us in the early to mid 20’s (more buyers).

I think if we look deeper into this you will find the average days on the market are more accurate in relation to the properties that sit in the median sale price band. If properties are further away from the bulk of demand being investors and first home buyers on the lower to medium price point, the days on the market tend to balloon out.

There are always markets within markets, and this is why when applying these market statistics to assessment for planning to purchase or sell you need to understand what is happening in more context to what you are considering it for.

ALBANY HOMEOWNERS

On a side note to see the Albany median sale price slide dramatically. We have seen more than double the regular apartment sales come through to make up nearly half of the monthly sales so if you are an Albany resident please don’t worry as we expect things to rebound back but with some seasonal adjustment and general price softening in the area.

US SHAREMARKET & GLOBAL ECONOMY

With plenty of media this month on both fall in the dow jones and the world markets including ours in reaction, you have to have some overall queries or how stable is this economic platform. Seven tell-tale signs the next crash is coming

We hear we are doing well in NZ. GDP is looking good, inflation still acceptable at present (we still need to see if this starts to get away based on petrol prices), but are we insulated from a major economic fall? And is this US-China Trade war going to cause more issues for NZ? Is NZ’s economy slipping behind?

China is looking relatively dangerous in regards to its levels of debt, and I don’t think much of the world has improved since the last GFC. The commentary seems to be saying that since the GFC there has been an improvement in the level of both personal and home debt, but bank and country debt is now worse than ever. This could be a real concern for handling an economic shock in times to come.

At this stage with all the taxing, the NZ coffers are full. Great to see such a large surplus but don’t forget who is in power and the tradition of a Lollie scramble mentality (as fast as it comes in it is going out).

There are some many factors and so much commentary out there that like any tale or proverb, there must be some truth to it. All in all, we need to tread with care and plan for caution when moving forward. Sadly these are not the years to be cavalier and put it all on red.

NEW LAW CHANGES

I am releasing this just about on the eve of the 22nd of October and the new laws around foreign buyers is just about to dawn on us.

There has been much speculation about what this will do to our market. Will it cause a massive drop in demand from buyers? Will it force more capital/equity into the much needed new building sector? Will it create a new level of xenophobia towards foreigners, and or the rest of the world about how we feel about them? Or will after everyone pauses to see what’s going to happen, it will back to business as usual?

In the last week, we have seen something we thought could happen but didn’t believe would. An influx of short-term arrivals of overseas purchasers, landing and popping in to pick up an asset or two before the date.

My question is, that if we see this locally in our backyard, how much of this is happening everywhere else in Auckland or in fact New Zealand, and will we see an October rise in median sale price and or volume as a result?

With the new rules and impacts they will have, we will have to wait and see. Its here now and we have to live by it
To understand more about if you can purchase as a buyer read Investing in New Zealand and OIO Right to buy residential NZ.

The one thing is that it will change the way in which every New Zealander or non-New Zealander purchase property in this country.

Yes more hoops, more boxes to check and if you do purchase no matter the sale method, you need to fill out disclosure forms.

Auctions even more so will be affected, as now the first form of registrations will be coming in and most likely this will set the tone for NZ to match Austraila and make buyers pre-register for any bidding mandatory.

This means no more buyers randomly bidding on the day, just turning up and scratching their nose. No more the neighbours supporting his or her fellow street by chucking in a cheeky bid.

This will, however, take some time for adoption by the buying community and although it’s more palaver to go through to try and own a home, I see more benefits than problems or inconvenience.

Owners should be excited in that fact that they will honestly know if people are coming to bid. Agents will be clearer on the intention of people who are coming as they can now spend more time focusing their time on the serious buyers, and the Auctioneer will know where to look, especially when someone is holding a paddle (if we get that far in the registration process). Also for buyers, there will be absolutely no way for planted bidding or the neighbourly ingredient to create competition. Just more transparency all around.

Only three more weeks for new properties to hit the market. The market tends to start to ease off mid to late November, and as we reach Santas month, people just get distracted from buying.
With changes afoot I think there are exciting times ahead.

2018-10-24T09:39:25+00:00 Oct, 2018|